The Rayner Plot — Future of Jobs 2025

Share of employers expecting each occupation to grow, decline, or remain stable by 2030. X-axis: net balance of employer expectations (negative = more declining than growing). Y-axis: churn — total share expecting any directional change. Jobs near the base are broadly stable; near the apex, contested. Dot size = projected workforce 2030.
Position reflects the share of employers anticipating change — not the estimated average magnitude of workforce growth or decline. A role near net-zero at high churn faces equal growth and decline pressure: structural volatility, not stability.
✦ In memory of Mark Rayner Mark conceived this plot. His insight: headline net-growth figures mask hidden turbulence. A role near net-zero with high churn has equal numbers of employers growing and cutting it — not stability. This is the Rayner Plot.

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